Sometimes the Climate Change Media is like "Carry on Global Warming !", a comedy slapstick all-British film from the 1960s or thereabouts... But seriously, there is a myth that was invented a few years ago, that has been rigorously and deflty challenged, but yet is still popping up in publications. The myth reads like this : "Global Warming stopped in 1998". It's just not true ! Here's some evidence (see below). Before you scream and shout and write back on this thread in anger, please try to understand the charts first. =x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x= from Jo Abbess For Publication To The Editor(s), Daily Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph Dear Madam / Sir, I am writing in regard to the article published in the Daily Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/10/eaclim... The piece was, in my view, a helpful unpacking of the current If you were to read the reports surrounding charts of Global Warming http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertainty-noise-... and if you were to view and understand the charts, for example :- http://www.realclimate.org/images/hadcru-8yr.jpg I think you would conclude that it is not accurate to say, as Paul The charts suggest very powerfully and visually that Paul's statement Global Warming has continued to increase since 1998, on balance, the I am asking politely if you would consider altering your article with Thank you for your attention to this matter. Respectfully yours, ... =x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x= |
|||
 |
Campaign against Climate ChangeUK activists portal |
|
|
|
Just what defines a 'trend' ? More than 15 vears of data!
Jo, you cannot establish trends on a global scale based on 8 and 15 years. It's simply not statistically valid or significant. Even a 'trend' of 50 years has a very low level of confidence.
I can show you graphs that show the opposite over the same time.....and if you look at longer term trends (from NASA for example) they show the opposite, a DECREASE in temperature over the last century.
Statistics for beginners
Having had to do a fair amount of stats in my degree many years ago (biology with a serious ecology bias) i would have been laughed off campus if i'd handed in my project with a sample set of 8 or 15 (i'm talking periods here). Trends can't be derived over such a short time frame and you need to run a great deal of comparrisions to derive a cause and the data simply does not exist yet. If you want to talk about short patterns what about the oceanic temperature drop over the last two years (might be months, check it for yourself). These are the main "heat sinks" for the planet, that would suggest a decline in temperature. Alternatively to further illustrate the danger of drawing conclusions too quickly i can draw you a suprisingly accurate graph showing how the decline in pirate numbers has lead to a rise in global temperatures.
If you want people to take the arguement more seriously present better data (I'm one of the people that admits i don't know the cause of climate change and am waiting to be convinced).