* Climate Change on the Millenial Timescale from the Tyndall Research Centre: up to 10 degrees warming and 11 metres sea level rise by 3000. Jim's links The warming effects of our fossil fuel burning are already ‘irreversible’ in that they will last thousands of years. A worthy Realclimate article is http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=134 “How long will global warming last?†– great apart from the pseudo-economics in the final comment. I favour speaking of the danger of ‘runaway’ global warming, to describe passing a threshold where positive feedbacks from biospheric gas releases and melting ice bring about ‘catastrophic’ warming of several Celsius. This is different usage from describing the situation on the planet Venus, but can anyone suggest better words? The following is my updated list of URLs for key article references on the long term effects of climate change and the case for action. A letter enclosing a version of this list with some articles enclosed was delivered to most MPs on the occasion of our December 3 rally. (a) Man-made runaway warming “would last 100,000 years†– Science on latest evidence on catastrophic global warming event 55 million years ago. See http://physorg.com/news4491.html; also www.newscientist.com > search “Ancient Bleak†> top result (b) Man-made runaway warming can be averted at cost “only 0.3-0.5% of world GDP." See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3975325.stm N.B. Although Campaign against Climate Change does not endorse nuclear power, the findings of this study are indicative of the comparative affordability of making the greenhouse gas cuts required, although this will entail considerably more than changes to large-scale electricity generation. (c) Time is actually very shortâ€. See: http://forests.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=45249 (d) Cleaner exhausts could cause “greater surge in global warming than previously thoughtâ€. www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1672444,00.htm (e) Climate warning as Siberia melts. www.newscientist.com > search “Siberia melts†(f) “1/4†of land species may be extinct by 2050 – Nature. news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3375447.stm (g) Sea level rise of over 13 metres widely predicted in long-term from man-made runaway warming: e.g. see http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/ Effect on UK coast and population centres: see www.benfieldhrc.org/climate_change/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm (h) 55% of Brits follow “fairly or very closely†media discussion of climate change, www.wwf.org.uk/filelibrary/pdf/yougov_survey.pdf It is certainly worth also reminding many audiences of the effects in terms of storm disasters, droughts, water shortages, crop yields and disease this century alone. Also many will need to be shown the extent of the scientific consensus, q.v. 2005's joint statement by national science academies, www.royalsoc.ac.uk/document.asp?id=3222 and New Scientist articles on climate sceptics and the Exxon payroll: www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg18524861.400, www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18524861.500, www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg18725134.400
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Long term effects of global
I would use the term "abrupt climate change". This is readily understandable by most people - the concepts of feedback loops and runaway scenarios are not so easily communicable. For example, "positive feedback" in any system is a dangerous phenomenon, but in usual speech is a upbeat and encouraging term.
It also effectively distinguishes between the popularly imagined concept of a slow and gradual warming (champagne on the south downs etc.), and the flip-flopping reality that prevailed certainly throughout the last Ice Age (and possibly others too).
I would recommend "The Two-Mile Time Machine - Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and our Future" by Richard Alley for an overview of the Earth System in (relatively) recent times.