Sources

References that can inform the campaign. i.e. books, reports, papers, newspaper articles etc.

Add links under the appropriate sub-page, including the date, a short summary and highlighting relevant sections if possible. If it doesn't fit, just add here.

Climate Science

General

* IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) * Climate change on Wikipedia (especially good figures e.g. Climate Change attribution) * Global Climate Change Student Guide from ARIC (pdf) * Royal Society - A guide to facts and fictions about climate change. Prepared by a group led by Sir David Wallace FRS, Treasurer of the Royal Society, and Sir John Houghton FRS, former chair of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and endorsed by the Council of the Royal Society. It addresses the popular skeptics' arguments and the value of the Kyoto Protocol as a first step.

"Dangerous" climate change

* Stabilising climate to avoid dangerous climate change (2005) from the Hadley Centre: "dangerous" climate change in terms of abrupt (i.e. tipping points: gulf stream, terrestrial carbon sink, greenland ice sheet and methane hydrates (good summaries)) and gradual change; relation between CO2 concentrations and temperature; emissions scenarios and CO2 levels. (NB the model-based projections for the greenland ice-sheet on time-scales of 1000s yr are disputed by Hansen (below), who claims that real-world data show much faster response times). * Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (2005) from the Exeter conference of the same name (see this guardian story) * James Hansen's presentation Is There Still Time to Avoid "Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference" with Global Climate? (2005) given at the AGU on Dec 6th. (An interesting quote: "Humans now control climate, for better or for worse" (p.6)) * Can 2°C warming be avoided? (2006) article on Realclimate, based partly on the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change report.

Atmospheric CO2

* Atmospheric CO2 Records from Online Trends by CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Centre): range of historical (ice core) and contemporary CO2 records. * CO2 record from Mauna Loa (1958-present) (data)

Change Change Impacts

* Climate Change on the Millenial Timescale from the Tyndall Research Centre: up to 10 degrees warming and 11 metres sea level rise by 3000.

Jim's links

The warming effects of our fossil fuel burning are already ‘irreversible’ in that they will last thousands of years. A worthy Realclimate article is http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=134 “How long will global warming last?” – great apart from the pseudo-economics in the final comment.

I favour speaking of the danger of ‘runaway’ global warming, to describe passing a threshold where positive feedbacks from biospheric gas releases and melting ice bring about ‘catastrophic’ warming of several Celsius. This is different usage from describing the situation on the planet Venus, but can anyone suggest better words?

The following is my updated list of URLs for key article references on the long term effects of climate change and the case for action. A letter enclosing a version of this list with some articles enclosed was delivered to most MPs on the occasion of our December 3 rally.

(a) Man-made runaway warming “would last 100,000 years” – Science on latest evidence on catastrophic global warming event 55 million years ago. See http://physorg.com/news4491.html; also www.newscientist.com > search “Ancient Bleak” > top result

(b) Man-made runaway warming can be averted at cost “only 0.3-0.5% of world GDP." See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3975325.stm N.B. Although Campaign against Climate Change does not endorse nuclear power, the findings of this study are indicative of the comparative affordability of making the greenhouse gas cuts required, although this will entail considerably more than changes to large-scale electricity generation.

(c) Time is actually very short”. See: http://forests.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=45249

(d) Cleaner exhausts could cause “greater surge in global warming than previously thought”. www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1672444,00.htm
Also www.newscientist.com > search “Greenhouse Aerosols Cleaner” > top 2 results

(e) Climate warning as Siberia melts. www.newscientist.com > search “Siberia melts”

(f) “1/4” of land species may be extinct by 2050 – Nature. news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3375447.stm

(g) Sea level rise of over 13 metres widely predicted in long-term from man-made runaway warming: e.g. see http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

Effect on UK coast and population centres: see www.benfieldhrc.org/climate_change/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm

(h) 55% of Brits follow “fairly or very closely” media discussion of climate change, www.wwf.org.uk/filelibrary/pdf/yougov_survey.pdf

It is certainly worth also reminding many audiences of the effects in terms of storm disasters, droughts, water shortages, crop yields and disease this century alone.

Also many will need to be shown the extent of the scientific consensus, q.v. 2005's joint statement by national science academies, www.royalsoc.ac.uk/document.asp?id=3222 and New Scientist articles on climate sceptics and the Exxon payroll: www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg18524861.400, www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18524861.500, www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg18725134.400

Action against climate change in Africa

action against climate change in africa

Emissions: links

* Global CO2 emissions from CDIAC * Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions from Online Trends by CDIAC: emissions broken down by region and country (to 2002). * Greenhouse gas data inventory database compiled from reports of signatories under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (you can also see the for 2005): an excellent interactive database outputting emissions on the basis of country, gas, sector and year (the output in Gg CO2 can be converted to the more usual Mt C by dividing by 1000 (Mt CO2) then multiplying by 12/44) * UK Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (2006) from Defra (covering 1990-2004): "basket" of greenhouse gases is 183 Mt C (million tons Carbon equivalent) compared to 209 in 1990 (12% decrease); CO2 is 158 compared with 165 (4% decrease); however recent trends (since 2002) have been upwards (1.6% for the basket, 3.3% for CO2). Also see How UK CO2 emissions are measured. * UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Annual Report for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (.doc) (2005) from the NAEI Atmosperic Emissions Reports: basket emissions were 208.8 Mt C or 765.6 Mt CO2 (NB units) in 1990 compared with 665.8/181.6 in 2003 (13% reduction) (see tables ES1,ES2). (Therefore 2003 emissions per capita were: ~11 Mt CO2 or ~3 Mt C, given UK population of 60 million)

Carbon Reduction

Govt. policy

* UK Climate Change Programme (and the review, due early 2006)

Carbon Footprinting: links

* Resurgence Carbon calculator - based on electricity/gas bills but it includes less common energy sources like wood, propane and butane.
* National Energy Foundation carbon calulator: covers almost everything, with a useful list of conversion factors.
* Carbonlife calculator - very general, based on lifestyle.
* Fuel conversion factors from Defra (last updated June 2005).
* Carbon Rationing Action Groups are small groups of individuals working together to reduce their personal footprint.
* RSA Carbon Limited project has a carbon footprinting capability and allows users to compare footprints with others.
* Energy bench marking tool for commercial buildings.
* CRAG carbon footprinting and accounting with pie and bar charts based on the CRAG model.

Carbon Rationing: summary

* www.dtqs.org/ and www.teqs.net/ for the work of David Fleming, a policy analyst who first put forward the idea (his booklet is recommended) * Tyndall reseach centre's final report on DTQs (by Richard Starkey and Kevin Anderson); useful summaries i.) on p.58 of Decarbonising the UK, ii.) in their Guardian article That'll be £17 and 10 carbon points * Domestic Tradable Quotas (Carbon Emissions) Bill (ePolitix) from Collin Challen MP (failed in the 2003/4 session). * EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). * the carbon coach helps us reduce the size of our personal carbon footprint. *A Rough Guide to Individual Carbon Trading a critccal review of the options and the problems from Centre for Sustainable Energy.

West Midlands CCC Personal Carbon Rationing Scheme

CONTENTS

1. the background
2. the carbon rationing scheme
3. how to join
4. how it works
5. enforcement
6. (anticipated) frequently asked questions
7. references

THE BACKGROUND

This is a guide to joining the carbon rationing scheme.

In 2003, the average UK citizen caused 5.4 tonnes of CO2 to enter the atmosphere (ref 1). In order of importance, these were due to:

• air travel (1.8t)
• household heating (1.5t)
• car use (1.0t)
• household electricity consumption (0.9t)
• other public transport use (0.2t)

These five categories make up our so-called personal CO2 emissions. Personal CO2 emissions make up about half of the UK's total. The other half is caused by businesses and the public sector.

A sustainable level of personal CO2 emissions is thought to be as low as about 0.6t if we leave business and public sector with their “fair” share. This represents a 90% reduction from today's level. To avoid dangerous and potentially runaway climate change, this needs to be achieved by 2030 (ref 2). .

THE CARBON RATIONING SCHEME

To achieve a 90% reduction in personal emissions by 2030 will require a 10% reduction per year. This scheme gives us all an opportunity to start contributing our fair share to that goal. For simplicity, the scheme covers the first four categories (96%) of personal emissions only, that is: air travel, household heating, car use and household electricity. The scheme assumes these came to 5t, i.e. 5000kg, of CO2 per person in 2005. The personal ration of each member of the scheme will therefore be 4500kg in 2006, 4050kg in 2007 and so on. The scheme rewards those who live within their ration and penalizes those who exceed their ration. It is based on the principles of Contraction and Convergence and Domestic Tradeable Quotas (refs 3 and 4).

HOW TO JOIN

You join the scheme by letting me know you want to and by explaining something about your living circumstances as this will affect how your CO2 is counted.

For example, my details are:

• I share a house with 3 others
• Our heating is by coal oil and wood
• We don't get our electricity from a renewables source
• Three of us own cars; one of them is mine
• I am the only one joining the scheme

My ration would therefore have to cover 1/4 of the household’s emissions (no matter how much or little the others contributed to the total) and all of my car’s emissions (no matter how often others borrowed or shared my car).

HOW IT WORKS

At the start of the year, I will credit your CO2 account with your annual ration (4500kg in 2006). Every time you get an energy bill, a new MOT or a plane ticket, you will let me know the details (e.g. how many kWh of electricity, annual car mileage, flight destination, etc) and I will debit the equivalent amount of CO2 from your account and let you know your new CO2 balance. This should not mean you sending me more than about 12 to 15 emails a year.

At the end of the year, if you are in credit, you will stand to gain for every kg of CO2 still in your account. If you are overdrawn, I will ask you to pay off your CO2 debts! Debts will be paid at a rate of so many pence per kg of CO2. The participants will agree amongst themselves what this rate should be. They must come to an agreement by the end of March each year. Debtors will pay their dues into a CO2 fund held with a friendly (Co-op?) bank. The CO2 fund will then be distributed amongst the CO2 savers in proportion to their share of total savings. So if, for example, your savings make up one tenth of the group’s total savings, you will receive one tenth of the total paid into that year's CO2 fund. You may of course pledge it to some good cause if you are embarrassed to keep it for yourself!

To understand what this would mean in practice, let us assume that in 2006 the participants settle on a rate of 10p per kg. Imagine you have used up your generous ration of 4500kg and want to make another journey. You will now be going into CO2 debt. At 10p/kg, a car journey from Birmingham to London will cost about £4, a return flight to Athens will put you back £188 and a return flight to New Zealand will cost £1200!

At the end of the year, whether you are in CO2 credit or overdrawn, if you want to remain in the scheme and/or benefit from the distribution of the CO2 fund, you should send me (as proof of your year's CO2 footprint) paper copies of your energy bills, MOT and plane tickets. These should get to me before the end of January of the new year. CO2 debts due on the old year should be paid in February of the new year. CO2 funds will be shared out amongst the happy savers in March.

ENFORCEMENT

Threat of exclusion from the scheme is the only means of enforcement at our disposal. However, it ensures (I think) that CO2 funds are only paid to those who have a clean “compliance” record. You will be excluded if:
• you fail to provide CO2 footprint proof by the end of January, or
• you fail to pay off your CO2 debt by the end of February
• you opt out of the scheme
The last one prevents people going off for a CO2 binge and rejoining the next year without paying their CO2 dues.

(ANTICIPATED) FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Q1. How will you calculate the CO2 emissions associated with the energy use that I report.
A1. I will use the conversion factors that I have obtained from the coinet.org.uk website. They are the same figures as used by CAT and Mayer Hillman. The numbers come from the DTI and include a 3x factor on air miles to account for the enhanced warming potential of gases emitted at altitude. Please feel free to check my arithmetic when I update your balance

Q2. How can we ensure we hit our annual emissions target?
A2. If total CO2 savings are equal to or greater than total CO2 debts at the end of the year, then you will have hit or bettered your target. This will probably not happen in the first year because it is likely that you will (not unreasonably) set the cost of CO2 debt too low e.g. zero pence per kilo! As a result there will be insufficient motivation to save and insufficient demotivation to generate emissions. You will probably be more radical in the second year and easily hit your target. Don't worry, after a few years, you will become experts at setting the cost of CO2 holding debt that will enable you to meet the increasingly exacting targets.

Q3a. I am a student and live 30 weeks a year in a hall of residence and the rest of the year I am either travelling or at home with the folks. How does that work?
A3a. Interesting. Your personal share of electricity and heating energy consumption is difficult to quantify. You probably don't have much control over them. So unless you have a serious objection, I suggest you accept CO2 ration for car and plane use only (i.e. 55% of standard ration) and report only these. If you stick to the bike and avoid flying, you'll be quids in!!

Q3b. What happens when I move out of hall and into that flatshare?
A3b. You'll get the full ration. We will divide the household's emissions calculated from the bills by the number of people officially resident and debit that from the accounts of any of you on the scheme.

Q3c. What if energy bills are included in the rent?
A3c. You cannot be serious! But if you are, I would suggest you get a copy of the bill off the landlord and we would do it as per A3b above.

Q4. What is to stop me cheating by not reporting a flight?
A4. Only your conscience. This scheme will depend on us trusting one another not to cheat. The better we know each other the easier this will be. Therefore I suggest we have regular (quarterly?) meetings to catch up and compare CO2 notes. Clearly the more local a group is, the less this is a problem.

Q5. Can I join part way through the year?
A5. Yes, but you'll need to report your CO2 emissions (i.e. dig out your energy bills, MOT and plane tickets) for the first part of the year.

Q6a. I have a baby. Does she get a full ration too?
A6a. Yes, as does any dependent that lives full time in the same house as you.
Otherwise it gets too complicated.

Q6b. What will you do when I report our household energy use?
A6b. I will calculate the CO2 equivalent and debit half of it from you and the other half from your baby's account.

Q6c. What will you do when I report our car mileage?
A6c. I will calculate the CO2 equivalent and debit all of it from your account. It's your car after all.

Q6d. What will you do when I report our air travel?
A6d. If you both flew, I will calculate the CO2 equivalent for the journey and debit it from each account.

Q7a. I live with my partner and we share a car but he is not interested in his CO2 emissions. How will that work?
A7a. You will be debited only half your household energy emissions whether he joins in the scheme or not.

Q7b. And what about the car emissions?
A7b. If you own the car, they will be debited from your account. If you don't, they won't.
We have to keep it simple.

Q8. I drive/fly on business. Does that come out of my ration?
A8. The scheme only covers car/plane travel for private purposes. If you use your car for work AND private use, you will have to explain how you split the mileage. Don't you have to do that for the taxman anyway?!

Q9. Add your own here!

REFERENCES

1. Mayer Hillman "How we can save the planet", Penguin (2004). Table 4
p148. Reproduced on the internet at
http://coinet.org.uk/solutions/carbon-rationing.
2. Colin Forrest "Cutting Edge: Climate Science to April 2005"
http://portal.campaigncc.org/files/THE_CUTTING_EDGE_CLIMATE_SCIENCE_TO_A...
3. http://www.gci.org.uk/
4. http://www.dtqs.org/

Andy Ross

20-01-2006

Oldberrow House
Oldberrow
Henley-in-Arden
Warwickshire
B95 5NU

Tel. 01564 793141

p.s. there is a forum to discuss this scheme at http://portal.campaigncc.org/?q=node/550

Contraction & Convergence: Summary

Please add any material relating to C&C.

* The fair choice for climate change - an excellent summary and advocacy of C&C by Aubrey Meyer.

Wind and Renewables

Note: as with other content on this portal, opinions expressed are not necessarily those of CCC.

General

* David MacKay's guide Sustainable Energy — without the hot air (2008)

* UKERC "Dispels Myths Surrounding Intermittent Renewable Energy" (2006)

Wind

* Sustainable Development Commission report Wind Power in the UK (2005)

* Archer & Jacobson study: "Wind Could Meet Global Energy Needs" using only 20% of known viable sites - see also abstract (2005)

* Independent letter on dangers of wind turbines on peatland (halfway down webpage) (2008)

* New Scientist article on dangers of wind turbines on peatland (2006)

* Daily Telegraph report on European protests over wind farms (2004)

Solar

* Solar foils and textile: various (2008); Nanosolar, Silicon Valley (2007); H-Alpha Solar, Europe (2004); Konarka silicon-free, US (2004); Spheral Solar ("blue denim"), Canada (2003)

* Earth Policy Institute: Solar Cell Production Jumps 50 Percent in 2007 (2007)

* Wiki on Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation - see also Guardian article (2006); Independent Letter (2007)

* Independent article on European high-voltage DC supergrid proposal (2007)

* Passive solar flourishes in China (2007)

* New Scientist graphic: 1 MHa solar "could meet current US electricity demand", 30 MHa "current world energy demand" (2007)

Geothermal

* Geothermal "could support US energy consumption, at its current clip, for more than two millennia to come" - MIT (2007)

* Australian hot rocks: 1% could supply "26,000 years of clean electricity" (2008)

* Iceland hot rocks "could power 1.5m European homes" (2007) - see also debate over locating energy-intensive industry in Iceland

Wave and tidal

* Wave and tidal "could meet entire US electricity needs" (2007)

* DTi Atlas of UK marine renewable energy resources (2004)

* Salter's Ducks "biggest single threat to nuclear power" (2007)

* Independent article "The rise of British sea power" (2008)

Agrofuels versus solid biomass; biomass versus other energy sources

The attached charts show

(i) how poorly temperate agrofuels (liquid biofuels from crops or forestry, excluding algae) compare with wood used directly to replace coal as a land-use for mitigation. In simple terms the latter was found to be 5x-10x more effective. "WTW biomass options slide" taken from Concawe Well-to-Wheels study (2007)

(ii) how biomass (and some hydro dams) are a very poor land-use for energy compared with wind, solar or geothermal - orders of magnitude poorer. "Energy Footprints" taken from Pimentel et al. (2002)

Caution: these tables should not be used for hard-and-fast estimates of each energy pathway's performance as there are several complicating issues.

Other key relevant graphs and charts:

BBC News: The living planet: facts and figures. Comparative per capita ecological footprints, ecological debts of different countries, and link to Global Footprint Network for more data and brief introduction to methodology (2006)

New Scientist: Forget biofuels - burn oil and plant forests instead. Introduction to findings of Righelato and Spracklen's study with journal citation (2007). Reforestation was found to be 2x-9x more effective for mitigation than planting biofuels. See also blogs by Renton Righelato at Scitizen and World Land Trust. Beware of misquotation of this study's findings, variously by The Guardian, King Review and Greenpeace.

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Agrofuels and food crisis: some encoded links

World Bank working paper: Biofuels 75% to blame for grain inflation: here

ActionAid: Three nails in the coffin: the G8's contribution to the global food crisis: here

IFPRI, IRRI heads call for moratorium on grain-ethanol and biodiesel, attack "biofuels frenzy": here

Reuters: IMF Head calls for halt to turning food into fuel, warns worst of hunger is yet to come (Apr 18): here says the head of the IMF

Guardian Food on the shelves, people can't afford it (Apr 5): here world food crisis

New York Times reports - One lever West can pull is to halt biofuel production: here

Stefan Tangermann OECD Agriculture Director - "It is the only lever on which we can act rapidly": here

OECD Press Release and link to report OECD’s Economic Assessment of Biofuel Support Policies

New Statesman editorial: here
Mark Lynas in New Statesman: How the rich starved the world here

Reuters: "Stop using food for biofuel, West told": here
Reuters: India, Africa urge biofuel rethink: here

Biofuel programmes worldwide are now actually hindering African food production by creating a shortage of mineral fertilizer. here http://tinyurl.com/65rk4c

Fewer African crops planted, fertilizer suspected: here, 2/3 into article.

Parliamentary Answer over halting RTFO: here

EU Joint Research Council report Biofuels in the European Context: here http://tinyurl.com/688cog

Grist: Iowa state university: Cellulosic ethanol not viable by 2022: here http://tinyurl.com/6gw2d5

Scharlemann and Laurance on Zah et al.: here http://tinyurl.com/5vkkl9

Fargione et al. and Searchinger et al. on carbon debt of biofuels: here

DfT Carbon and Sustainability Reporting Within the Renewable Transport
Fuel Obligation Requirements and Guidance Government Recommendation
to the Office of the Renewable Fuels Agency: here

New Scientist on Carbopeat palm/acacia/peatland emissions: Bog Barons. here http://tinyurl.com/26qtzk

Sciencedaily on Carbopeat palm/acacia/peatland emissions: here

Biofuelwatch email to MP: here

EU agrofuel moratorium call: here

Directories of MPs: here

Ferran Tarradellas in the Guardian: here

Rudi Vis' EDM World Food Availability and Biofuels: here

Renewables a good bet, minus ethanol: fund mgr here

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